Winners and Losers? The Effect of Gaining and Losing Access to Selective Colleges on Education and Labor Market Outcomes

We use the introduction of Texas Top Ten Percent rule to estimate effect access a selective college on graduation and earnings outcomes for two groups students. For highly ranked students at more disadvantaged high schools, who gained under policy, enrollment increased. Less advantaged tended lose access, shifted toward less-selective colleges but did not see declines in overall enrollment, graduation, or earnings. The policy thus benefited targeted admission without evidence adverse effects displaced (JEL I21, I23, I24, I26)